Offering Unbiased Advice

Power Markets

Understanding power market dynamics is never simple, a situation that is exacerbated by the rapid transitions that are occurring in both local and global energy markets, be it from increases in renewable generation, evolving regulatory landscapes or continued volatility in the commodities markets.

Infunde’s comprehensive data analysis and modelling approach draws on our economic and engineering know-how to provide you with a more accurate assessment of power markets, enabling you to more thoroughly assess opportunities and risks that may otherwise be overlooked.

Our Power Market Modelling Approach

Better Data

Drawing on a multi-disciplinary team of economists and engineers, we meticulously review and scrub our databases incorporating a wide variety of technical and economic parameters.

By having access to our experienced in-house technical staff and their substantial track record in the markets we serve, we are able to reflect actual industry views into availability, thermal efficiency, operating costs, as well as replacement and new entrant costs.
Drawing on in-house economists and specialized mineral economists, we can delve deeply into the supply, demand, and pricing dynamics. We provide real insight as to underling commodity price drivers, commodity price volatility term structures, and realistic fuel price sensitivities.
With a team of experienced economists and engineers active in the markets we serve, we understand and constantly monitor the regulatory frameworks governing the energy and power sectors. In addition, each of our country models are fully customized and incorporate the various regulatory frameworks for each country’s specific market design.
We spend considerable effort analysing available pricing, demand, and outage data to more thoroughly understand the impacts on power prices, unlike many other consultants.

Therefore the databases and models used in preparing our clients’ power market assessments incorporate our deep insights powered by decades of industry experience. They incorporate technical parameters and constraints that other consultants may miss, reflect the regulatory nuances of each country that will not be covered by a standard ‘one-size-fits-all’ modelling package and reflect the actual behaviour of market participants.

The result

A more accurate portrayal of the spectrum of potential dispatch and price outcomes allowing our clients to more accurately assess opportunity and risk.

Better Modelling

Through Infunde’s modelling suite, we can apply the most applicable power market modelling approach for each of our client’s requests. While other consultants may apply a ‘single one-size-fits-all’ model design, we believe that this may not lead to meaningful results. As a result, we employ a variety of market models in developing our power market assessments, depending on our clients’ requirements.

Strategic

is Infunde’s proprietary long-term dispatch and economic capacity expansion model. Our fundamental load duration curve (LDC) model applies long-term supply and demand forecasts in order to project long-term power prices, evaluate long-term dispatch, project new capacity additions, and evaluate long-term capacity premiums. Strategic employs a robust commercially-available mixed integer linear program engine which allows us to incorporate constraints that occur in the markets we serve, including:

  • Fuel switching optionality
  • Regulatory changes
  • Hedging and contracting constraints
  • Pumped storage and hydroelectric optimization
  • Intermittent wind and solar generation
  • Transmission and security constraints

Strategic is a powerful engine that enables us to quickly analyse multiple scenarios, allowing us to help clients’ evaluate long-term integrated resource plans, master plan developments, and take a long term view on a projects competitiveness and how this is impacted by changes in regulation, new entrants and macroeconomic factors.

Chronos

is Infunde’s proprietary stochastic chronological model that projects dispatch on an hourly basis taking into account real life operational considerations and modelling such as renewable profiles, plant outages and transmission constraints. Chronos employs a robust commercially-available mixed integer linear program engine which allows us to robustly model zonal prices incorporating meaningful constraints. Chronos has been developed, tested, refined, and utilized to project power prices, dispatch, and underpin asset valuations across numerous merchant power markets.

We believe that in order to fully understand the nuances of a particular market, especially for those that are currently in transition like the majority of markets in Asia, it is necessary to look into the short to medium term in a higher level of detail than that provided by an LDC model.

By accounting for stochastic events, Chronos allows us to more accurately model many of the events that coincide to create system stress and lead to the volatile power price behaviour that can be observed in the power markets we serve. These events are becoming increasingly important to the value of a project. Further with the increase in renewable penetration in emerging markets, we firmly believe power price projections and dispatch should incorporate modelling of hourly intermittent generation. As a result, we believe clients’ should demand a deeper more robust assessment incorporating stochastic hourly dispatch.

On top of our fundamental modelling framework utilizing Strategic and Chronos, we have developed MCAP, a robust pricing module that accurately reflects the bidding behaviour of market participants during on-peak periods and times of system stress. Using leading econometric approaches and heuristics we analyse actual bidding behaviour in each of our markets enabling us to more fully explain on- and off-peak pricing and the application of market power on an hour-by-hour basis.
The results: through modelling the power market with more detail and resolution, our modelling suite allows us to provide a much greater level of insight to opportunity and risk our clients face in power sector.

Better Data + Better Modelling = Better Results

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Location

Infunde Capital Pte Ltd
10 Anson Road #26-10
International Plaza
Singapore 079903

Email

info@infundecapital.com

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